Let’s predict the Future this weekend

LEADERBRIEFS: Special Edition – Navigating the Fourth Turning

Welcome to this special edition of LEADERBRIEFS, where we’re diving into the Fourth Turning, a theory that says history moves in cycles, and right now, we’re in the middle of a BIG ONE. 

Think of it like a storm. We’re past the first rumbles, heading toward the wildest part, with a chance for calm skies later. Hopefully a BIG chance.

Our goal this weekend? Break it down in plain language.

What’s coming, what to prepare for, and how to get ready.

My Quick Take

We’re in a Crisis phase called the Fourth Turning that started with the 2008 financial meltdown. ( Nice to have that in the Rear View! )

It’s a time of upheaval, and we’re shifting from the “regeneracy” (where sides form and institutions gear up) toward the “climax” (a make-or-break showdown). We can guess the “sides” that were formed. But can we guess the showdown?

Experts like Neil Howe peg this climax for the early-to-mid 2030s, with a resolution after that. Since it’s 2025, we’re about halfway through this bumpy ride. The next decade is crucial.

1. Where We Are NOW

History, per this theory, repeats in four stages.

 High, Awakening, Unraveling, and Crisis. We’re in the Crisis now—a time when old systems get tested, and society reshapes itself through big events like wars or revolutions. Here’s the historic and repeatable roadmap.

• Catalyst (Years 0-3): The shock that starts it. For us, that was the 2007-09 Great Recession. Banks froze, markets crashed. Things generally sucked.

• Regeneracy (Years 4-15): Institutions rally, and people pick sides. Think Tea Party, Brexit, Trump’s 2016 win, plus the pandemic response and huge government spending. This runs roughly 2011-2022, and we’re near the tail end now.

• Climax (Years 16-22): The big showdown. Could be war, a constitutional crisis, or a system collapse. Projected for 2029-33, tension’s already building. 2029 puts the United States into its next election. And there are already teasers of a Constitutional Crisis simmering in the background.

• Resolution (Years 22-25): Winners set new rules, and a fresh start begins. Expected 2033-35. Winners always means losers exist as well so a resolution might not even bring comfort.

It’s 2025, so we’re around Year 18—edging out of regeneracy and onto the on-ramp to the climax. Usually a great word! But not how it is used here.

2. The Next Decade Forecasted

No one’s got a crystal ball, but here’s a forecast based on the pattern.

Treat it like a weather report. General direction, not exact timing. Events will likely be similar and spread out.

• 2025-26: An economic dip or recession sparks yells to “fix the system.” The 2026 mid-terms could push for big changes. Think Supreme Court tweaks or Federal Reserve shakeups. These are current talking points and weak spots in our discourse.

• 2027-28: Debt and programs like Social Security hit a breaking point, tough choices loom. Younger folks (Millennials, Gen Z) take over more seats in Congress and boardrooms. Tech regulation and AI safety turn into political slugfests. Are we bracing for a Utopia or Dystopia?

• 2029-30: Trouble brews, maybe a conflict (Taiwan? Middle East?) or a U.S. election gone haywire. Unity campaigns might sound like WWII pep talks.

• 2031-32: Peak chaos and ingenuity. Picture wartime-style efforts—factories cranking for energy, chips, or climate fixes. Emergency cash policies roll out, maybe even a new global deal like after WWII.

• 2033-35: The “settlement.” A new setup emerges—could be election reforms, a budget rule, or a shiny new amendment. Boomers fade out, Millennials lead, and trust in institutions bounces back with an economic lift. Is UBI a part of this new paradigm?

3. What to Prepare For

This Crisis as its called doesn’t sound great or fun.

• Ups and Downs: Money, politics, and social trends will get shaky, expect surprises and new shifts in attention.

• System Overhauls: Old ways (government, banks) might get torn down or rebuilt. Maybe giving way to Crypto or Digital commerce?

• Younger Voices: Millennials and Gen Z will steer more, bringing fresh ideas, and clashes. These groups per the last election are also choosing sides.

• Tech Trouble: AI and tech breakthroughs will stir debates over rules and risks. Does this hint at AGI and what it means for modern work?

• Global Risks: Wars or standoffs could flare up abroad and that seems like nothing new as of late.

• Homefront Heat: Polarization might spark protests, legal fights, or worse. Neighbor Vs Neighbor isn’t new. Escalating what that looks like might be.

4. How to Prepare

If we are facing the inevitable, we really have to lean in. There is some comfort in that. At least to me. Here are a few ways to prepare for the coming decade.

• Stay Sharp: Follow the news ( not doom scrolling ) , economy, politics, tech. Knowing what’s up helps you plan. Avoid being blindsided, but do not obsess. Keep your inputs factual and not biased.

• Toughen Up: Spread out your money, learn new skills, grow your circle, be ready for jolts. Diversify has never sounded so attractive.

• Team Up: Build local ties, neighbors and groups can be a lifeline when things crack around you. We are all in this together in the end and now could be the time to widen your network in preparation.

• Speak Up: Vote, push for reforms you believe in, your voice shapes what’s next. Elections will prove key. Have a voice and use it. Change makers are here now, and on the horizon.

• Keep Learning: Stay flexible, keep up on tech or green skills to ride the trend that are likely coming. Stretch yourself and what you believe you are capable of. Take risks NOW before its too late to risk anything. Friction is Growth, seek more of that.

• Bridge Gaps: Talk across ages and views. Unity’s gold in a crisis. Millennials will likely play a huge part in the shaping of how things work after this phase.

• Spot Leaders: Watch for a “Gray Champion”, an older figure who steps up to guide us through, especially around 2028-30. Keep in mind these are US Election Years and challengers will be coming from everywhere.

The Bottom Line

We’re in the thick of it man, a Fourth Turning storm that’s been brewing since 2008! 

It might all feel day to day but looking back we will be able to pick out the events in hindsight that were loosely predicted. And name em!

The next few years could get rough, with a big showdown likely by the early 2030s. But here’s the bright side, if history’s any guide, surviving this mess could kick off a 20-year stretch of rebuilding and fantastic policies, like the post-WWII boom. This is great for us, our kids, our grandkids, etc. Plan for THAT, plan for THEM.

Hang tight, stay smart, and we might just see brighter days on the other side.

Thanks for reading LEADERBRIEFS—your guide through the chaos and beyond.

Looking for some resources?

Van Neistat, brother of Famed YouTuber Casey Neistat first introduced me to the Fourth Turning Concept. Watch his super creative video here.

A great pdf Summary of Neil Howes follow up THE FOURTH TURNING IS HERE. Follow this link to the web version.

Straight from the Source, check out any of Neil Howes books on Amazon as he has covered this and a load of peripheral subjects extensively!